After Trump gets his second term, liberals flip their shit and form the states of LSW and LSE respectively. The former South forms the Confederation and annexes New Mexico and West Virginia which causes a power shift, but also loses the South favors with other majority Republican unions that have formed after the break up. In a defensive act the LSW takes former Republican states like Arizona and mashes them up to become the Desert States inside the LSW. But lackluster army funding of the LSW paired up with the disconnection between he LSW and LSE comes into the CSS's favor. Unless Mexico or Canada helps the Democrats, the Republicans will prevail as the other Republican states that haven't joined the CSS are willing to bow to them.
What happens ? The newly formed Soviet Union will probably take it's chance to reaffirm it's grip on East Europe and Middle Asia.
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